Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but scarcely any politicians or activists want to engage with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a discussion," said the writer. "Debate implies an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless government minister who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified points, he said. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has got important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Wider Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."
